The operating system

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decisions.

software · Sept 2022

Decision: In September 2022, Adobe announced its intention to acquire Figma, the leading collaborative design platform, for approximately $20 billion — a valuation representing roughly 50x Figma's annual recurring revenue. The strategic rationale was clear: Figma had emerged as the dominant tool for UI/UX designers and posed an existential competitive threat to Adobe's flagship design products, particularly Adobe XD. By acquiring Figma, Adobe aimed to absorb the threat, consolidate its position in the design software market, and integrate Figma's collaborative-first product philosophy into its Creative Cloud ecosystem. The decision was controversial from the outset. The designer community reacted with widespread alarm, fearing that Figma's beloved product culture, pricing accessibility, and independent roadmap would be subsumed into Adobe's enterprise subscription model. Critics argued the deal was less about innovation and more about eliminating a disruptive competitor, a framing that would prove damaging in regulatory proceedings. European Union and UK competition regulators launched investigations into the deal, ultimately concluding it would harm competition in the interactive product design software market. Faced with insurmountable regulatory opposition, Adobe and Figma mutually abandoned the acquisition in December 2023. Adobe was required to pay Figma a $1 billion break-up fee as stipulated in the original merger agreement.

Rejection Rate · 78%

CRITICAL RISK

“Regulators will view the 50x ARR premium as evidence Adobe is paying to eliminate a competitive threat rather than acquire complementary technology”

streaming · Dec 2022

Decision: In December 2022, Disney+ restructured its subscription pricing by introducing a new $7.99/month ad-supported tier while simultaneously raising the price of the ad-free plan by 38% to $10.99/month. The strategic logic was twofold: attract price-sensitive subscribers who would tolerate ads, and monetize that segment through advertising revenue at margins potentially exceeding those of discounted ad-free plans. The move also aimed to retain existing subscribers who might otherwise churn due to the higher ad-free price by offering them a lower-cost alternative. The decision was made in a competitive streaming environment where subscriber growth was plateauing industry-wide and profitability was under pressure. Disney leadership calculated that advertising could become a meaningful revenue pillar, supplementing subscription fees and helping the Disney+ division move toward profitability. Critics and analysts at the time warned that the steep ad-free price increase could trigger significant subscriber backlash and churn, particularly among cost-conscious households. The broader industry context also mattered: Netflix had already begun exploring ad-supported tiers, signaling a sector-wide shift away from pure subscription models. Disney was positioning itself to lead this transition in its own ecosystem, using the dual-tier structure as both a retention tool and a new monetization channel.

Rejection Rate · 14%

LOW RISK

“Ad-free subscribers resent a 38% price increase and may cancel rather than pay more or accept ads”

social · Apr 2023

Decision: In April 2023, Reddit announced a new API pricing structure that would charge third-party developers at a rate making large clients like Apollo unviable — Apollo estimated its annual bill at roughly $20 million. The decision was framed publicly as a move to stop large language model companies from scraping Reddit data for free, but it also served a clear commercial purpose: consolidating users onto Reddit's own app and improving monetization metrics ahead of a planned IPO. The backlash was swift and coordinated. In June 2023, thousands of subreddits — including some of the platform's largest communities — went dark in protest, generating intense negative press coverage and comparisons to prior platform controversies. Reddit's leadership, including CEO Steve Huffman, held firm, refused to reverse the pricing, and allowed the blackout to run its course. Within weeks the protests dissipated organically. Moderators who refused to reopen subreddits were replaced. Third-party apps including Apollo shut down by the end of June 2023. Reddit proceeded to IPO successfully on the NYSE in March 2024, suggesting the company's internal calculus — that vocal protest would not convert to durable user loss — proved correct.

Rejection Rate · 72%

HIGH RISK

“API pricing is exploitative and kills the ecosystem that made Reddit valuable”